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Fourth Generation War « JohnSeilerBlogs.com

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Sometimes macho is stupido

Friday, November 21st, 2008

We’re witnessing the deserved demise of two politicians who boasted how tough they were, but now are humiliated by their own excesses: President Bush and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Seven years ago, Bush stood atop the world, the commander of the most fierce military machine the world had ever known. After 9/11, the world was tuned in to whatever Bush needed to do to get Bin Laden and the other terrorists who perpetrated the atrocities of that day.

mission accomplishedThe Neo”conservatives” flattered Bush by calling him “The Conquerer.” Every tough-guy American, including a lot of Rambo wannabees, urged Bush to “kick b*tt and take names.” His Second Inaugural Address, in 2005, was a call to America to force democracy on the rest of the world.

Today, America is a burned-out, bankrupt hulk of its former self. Even a Goliath, Americans have found out, can be brought down by dozens of Davids, if Goliath is foolish enough to keep challenging them on their own turf.

Sun Tzu

It’s unlikely Bush ever read, or even heard of, “On War,” by Sun Tzu, the greatest military strategist ever. Sun urged that the best way to defeat an enemy is to find a non-military way of doing so. That way, you win, and you keep your army. Fighting, especially at long distances, drains resources and bankrupts a country. (Sound familiar?) Fighting also reveals how capable, or incapable, your military is. The Iraq and Afghan wars showed that the U.S. military still is fighting World War II, and has almost no inkling that these are Fourth Generation wars. Bush’s Neocon strategists — Perle, Wolfowitz, Libby, etc. — are even more ignorant.

Sun Tzu advised that, if you know yourself and your enemy, you will always win. But if you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always lose. Bush and the Neocons are the most ignorant “strategists” America has ever suffered under, so it was inevitable that America would lose.

It’s too bad so many “macho” regular American patriots were so gullible about Bush, the Neocons, and the supposed invincility of American arms. History is littered with empires that stretch too far: Athens and its Sicilian Expedition, Rome at its height in Teutoberg Forest, the British Empire at its height in Afghanistan.

This is why prudence is a more important virtue that fortitude.

Gov. Steroid

conanAnother example of macho hubris is Gov Arnold Alois Schwarzenegger.  Building on his steroid-fueled stardom in bodybuilding and movies, Arnold projected himself in his 2003 election campaign as Conan the Governor. He would pound into oblivion the state’s chronic overspending, deficits, and high taxes. One male letter writer, who perhaps had seen too many Arnold action flicks, wrote to The Orange County Register, where I then worked, that as governor, Arnold would “lift the state on his broad shoulders.”

Once in office, he attacked the Democratic leadership in the Legislature as “girly men.” He tried to slam through a badly designed reform package on the ballot in November 2005.

When he failed, he turned the state government over to his wife, Maria, a Kennedy with high-tax, Kennedy-spending ways. He is the most uxorious governor I’ve ever seen, in any state.

The result: record deficits, soon to be made even worse by tax increases that will not raise more revenue, but instead chase more businesses from the state.

Back in 2003, I tried to warn people that Arnold was a Hollywood phony, that if you withold the anabolic steroid injections, he’s just a 99-pound weakling. But few listened.

Now the state is in a downward spiral leading to bankruptcy.

In 2003, voters had a chance to choose the real deal, state Sen. Tom McClintock, who understood the budget better than anyone in the state. Typically, voters chose style over competence and integrity. They thought Arnold would “terminate” the state’s problems.

Conclusion

Two fake-macho men, Bush and Arnold, fooled people into giving them power. Both wrecked the polities they never should have been allowed to govern, America and California.

And we’re all going to pay for their folly, and that of their supporters, the rest of our lives.

William Lind on Bush and the Neocons’ Pakistan disaster

Sunday, January 20th, 2008

William Lind is America’s greatest military strategist. He’s also the last person the Bush regime and its Neo”conservative” string-pullers would listen to.

Make sure you listen to him here on this radio interview, just 17 minutes long. Here’s his latest article, on the same theme.

He points out how the real problem now is Pakistan, whose state is failing as a byproduct of Bush and the Neocons’ insane policy in Afghanistan, whose instability is spilling across the obrder. This could bring about “loose nukes” floating around.

Thanks a lot, Bush and Neocons.

Bill O’Reilly clueless during his Potemkin tour of Afghanistan

Thursday, December 27th, 2007

I usually don’t watch Bill O’Reilly on Faux News. But the other day I saw the show on his visit to Afghanistan.

The U.S. military gave him a Potemkin tour. He interviewed a couple of generals, who told him things were going pretty well, but could be better. He believed the spin. He toured a shopping area, but even the Fox TV cameras showed that every other person there was a uniformed U.S. military person.

Only at the end did O’Reilly interview “the troops.” But even there, the lowest rank he talked to was staff sergeant (E-6). They repeated the generals’ propaganda line. He believed the spin.

If O’Reilly really wanted to find out what was going on, he should have talked to privates, if necessary keeping them anonymous. That’s what the late Col. David Hackworth always did when he went to a combat zone. That’s the real “No Spin Zone.”

O’Reilly also was pushing for a U.S. incursion into Taliban strongholds across the border into Pakistan. Except that would make Pakistan explode, possibly bringing terrorists to power and in control of the country’s nuclear weapons.

O’Reilly didn’t mention the disaster of Nixon’s 1970 incursion into Cambodia, which contributed to the dissolution of the country’s government and the seizure of power by Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge, who murdered 1/3 of Cambodia’s population. O’Reilly himself could have had a first-class tour of the Cambodia incursion if he had joined the U.S. military when it called on him as a young man. Instead, he avoided military service and went to Harvard, which he brags about all the time. He’s a chickenhawk.

A more accurate assessment of what’s going on in Afghanistan comes from the always prescient strategist William Lind. Writing in the form of C.S. Lewis’ “Screwtape Letters,” in which a junior devil reports to a senior devil on the mischief inflicted on humans, Lind notes:

Both NATO and the United States are getting bloody noses in Afghanistan and cannot adapt. Western governments’ devilish combination of ignorance and hubris prevents them from accepting the primary Afghan reality, namely that the Pashtun always win Afghan wars.

The spillover from Afghanistan, in turn, is pulling Pakistan apart. We assess that the Pakistani state will disintegrate in the near future, with strategic consequences far more Hellish than anything possible in Iraq. The potential combination of 4GW and loose nukes is one we view with delight.

(Again, that’s devils talking. For us here on earth, the devils’ “delight” is our perdition. The Pashtun are the tribe the Taliban belong to. The Pashtun spill over into Pakistan.)

O’Reilly is just an arrogant, loud-mouthed ignoramus. He cloaked his ignorant report in the guise of bringing hope to the troops. He kept calling for Hollywood entertainers to come to Afghanistan to entertain the troops.

A better idea is to bring our troops home from Afghanistan — and Iraq, and Europe, and Asia, etc. If O’Reilly thinks the Afghan struggle is so important, he should stay there and put on a uniform and fight.

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